The absentee ballot count in the Miami-Dade mayoral race is in and the split is almost 50/50 -- which bodes very well for former county commissioner Carlos Gimenez.
Ladra is going to predict now that Mayor Gimenez wins by more than five points.
Former Hialeah mayor Julio Robaina, and his expensive absenteel ballot machinery, had whooped Gimenez in AB votes during the May 24 primary, 3 to 2. Robaina had about 9,000 votes more and started the race with a 41 percent of the vote to Gimenez 28 percent.
But this 50.44 percent lead for Robaina is so tiny it's the best thing Ladra has heard all day. And I am not alone. Pollsters Fernand Armandi and Dario Moreno had told me (and everybody else who would listen) that Robaina needed a strong AB lead to win. His own people know this and I bet Julito is sweating it right now like he was at that Miami Beach Chamber of Commerce event weeks ago, bullets dripping down his long-sleeved token guayabera shirt.
Gimenez is expected to take both the early voting and the Election Day precinct voting, so that tiny half point lead should be gone very soon.
Stay tuned, people.